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Discretion & DOL > Perfection - Under conditions of clear draw present, like PDH, PDL, PWH, PWL, or simple continuation, identify where manipulation is taking place and prepare for entry, as soon as order flow switches.
- How will we identify that the order flow switch is taking place?
- CISD on 1m, aligning properly with the 15m candle - basically using PO3 on LTF 15m candle.
- CISD will also require solid momentum behind it, we cannot just take a CISD that is missing momentum, because this creates possibly a lower probability opportunity, and might mean price might chop in place.
- What if manipulation already took place prior to 10am open, and now the new 4h candle instantly expands in one direction?
- We will need to keep track of HTF at all times and weekly, daily, and 4H levels to understand where price currently is.
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Different scenarios will need different approach - For example, when 10am opens, and price did some HTF manipulation prior to market open, we are likely going to keep distributing. In these cases, price might leave clear PDAs to work with, but we will never reach into them.
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So, in cases like this, we need a continuation model [NEEDS BACKTESTING] -
- 5m/1m FVG being respected + using LTF PO3 on 5m and 15m time frame.
- SMT with ES on the lows that tap into for example, 5m FVG.
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Weekly Profile
- This sounds complicated but it isn’t, there’s many different weekly profiles, but one main thing we need to understand is this:
- Majority of the time, manipulation of the weekly candle will take place during Wednesday or Thursday, that’s where we will see the reversal.
- Understand DRAW for the week:
- If last week candle is in expansion, so it’s a green candle, anticipate for this week to treat PWH as draw for this current WEEK.
- IF price takes out PWH early in the week, likelyhood chance is that we will push lower for the remainder of the week.
- IF price starts moving towards bullish HTF PDAs, then we should anticipate a reversal midweek that will push us for PWH as draw for the week.
- Weekly profile will not particularly determine the trades we will be aiming for during the day, BUT, it is there for extra CONFLUENCE.
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Daily Profile
- Every day, draw out PDH and PDL - same for Monday - draw out Friday’s high and low.
- Do a pre-check every morning before 9:30 - has manipulation taken place yet? This will look relatively clear. When did we manipulate? Where?
- If Asia/London already manipulated price, we should anticipate for NY morning session to distribute and “not look back”.
- So, don’t be frustrated when price doesn’t retrace back for the next 4h candle, but rather ask yourself the question of why are we doing this?